Difference between revisions of "Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses (Task 15)"
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Risk-informed applications are expected to address uncertainties according to guidance such as: | Risk-informed applications are expected to address uncertainties according to guidance such as: | ||
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*[https://www.epri.com/#/pages/product/1026511/?lang=en-US EPRI 1026511, ''Practical Guidance on the Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Applications with a Focus on the Treatment of Uncertainty''] provides supplemental guidance beyond EPRI 1016737 and NUREG-1855 | *[https://www.epri.com/#/pages/product/1026511/?lang=en-US EPRI 1026511, ''Practical Guidance on the Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Applications with a Focus on the Treatment of Uncertainty''] provides supplemental guidance beyond EPRI 1016737 and NUREG-1855 | ||
**Appendix B provides an assessment of potential sources of model uncertainty associated with the internal fire hazard. This appendix identifies the minimum set of generic sources of model uncertainty that need to be addressed for meeting the related PRA standard supporting requirements associated with the internal fire hazard. | **Appendix B provides an assessment of potential sources of model uncertainty associated with the internal fire hazard. This appendix identifies the minimum set of generic sources of model uncertainty that need to be addressed for meeting the related PRA standard supporting requirements associated with the internal fire hazard. | ||
Revision as of 09:57, 6 November 2018
Contents
Task Overview
Background
This task describes the approach to follow for identifying and treating uncertainties throughout the Fire PRA process. The treatment may vary from quantitative estimation and propagation of uncertainties where possible (e.g., in fire frequency and non-suppression probability) to identification of sources without quantitative estimation, where knowledge of a quantitative treatment of uncertainties is beyond the state-of-the-art. The treatment may also include one-at-a-time variation of individual parameter values to determine the effect on the overall fire risk (sensitivity analysis).
Purpose
This procedure describes the approach for identifying and treating uncertainties throughout the Fire PRA process and identifying sensitivity analysis cases. It also prescribes a review for the identified uncertainties among the Fire PRA analysts to establish an integrated approach of addressing the effects of these uncertainties on the results of the analysis. At this time, the procedure provides a general approach to be followed and does not provide a comprehensive list of specific uncertainties to be addressed. As pilot Fire PRAs and other studies are completed, this procedure may be revised accordingly.
Scope
This procedure covers the identification and treatment of uncertainties throughout the Fire PRA. As such, it provides: (1) background on the subject of uncertainty found in Appendix U, (2) classification of types of uncertainty, and (3) a general approach with regard to practical implementation of treating expected uncertainties in the Fire PRA, as described in Appendix V.
Related Element(s) of ASME/ANS PRA Standard, ASME-RA-Sb-2013
Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis (UNC)
Related EPRI 1011989 NUREG/CR-6850 Appendices
Appendix U, Appendix for Chapter 15, Uncertainty Analysis-Technical Bases
Appendix V, Appendix for Chapter 15, Discussion of Individual Task Uncertainties
Supplemental Guidance
Risk-informed applications are expected to address uncertainties according to guidance such as:
- EPRI 1026511, Practical Guidance on the Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Applications with a Focus on the Treatment of Uncertainty provides supplemental guidance beyond EPRI 1016737 and NUREG-1855
- Appendix B provides an assessment of potential sources of model uncertainty associated with the internal fire hazard. This appendix identifies the minimum set of generic sources of model uncertainty that need to be addressed for meeting the related PRA standard supporting requirements associated with the internal fire hazard.
