Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses (Task 15) - Revision history

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2019-01-18T15:47:31Z

Supplemental Guidance

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2019-01-18T15:46:27Z

Supplemental Guidance

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2018-12-10T21:44:33Z

Background

User: /* Related Element(s) of ASME/ANS PRA Standard, ASME-RA-Sb-2013 */

2018-11-26T14:19:42Z

Related Element(s) of ASME/ANS PRA Standard, ASME-RA-Sb-2013

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2018-11-06T21:21:11Z

Supplemental Guidance

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2018-11-06T21:18:00Z

Supplemental Guidance

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2018-11-06T21:14:17Z

Supplemental Guidance

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2018-11-06T21:13:51Z

Supplemental Guidance

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2018-11-06T14:57:15Z

Supplemental Guidance

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2018-11-06T14:52:53Z

Supplemental Guidance

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 **Appendix B provides an assessment of potential sources of model uncertainty associated with the internal fire hazard. This appendix identifies the minimum set of generic sources of model uncertainty that need to be addressed for meeting the related PRA standard supporting requirements associated with the internal fire hazard.
 *[https://www.epri.com/#/pages/product/000000000001016737/?lang=en-US, EPRI 1016737, ''Treatment of Parameter and Modeling Uncertainty for Probabilistic Risk Assessments''] provides a generic list of model uncertainties and examples of how to characterize those sources.
-*[https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/staff/sr1855/r1, NUREG-1855 Revision 1, ''Guidance on the Treatment of Uncertainties Associated with PRAs in Risk Informed Decisionmaking''] provides guidance on how to treat uncertainties associated with PRAs to support a risk-informed application to the U.S. NRC. This process includes identifying and characterizing the uncertainties associated with the PRA, performing an uncertainty analysis to understand the impact of the uncertainties on the results of the PRA, and factoring the results of the uncertainty analyses into the decisionmaking.
+*[https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/staff/sr1855/r1 NUREG-1855 Revision 1, ''Guidance on the Treatment of Uncertainties Associated with PRAs in Risk Informed Decisionmaking''] provides guidance on how to treat uncertainties associated with PRAs to support a risk-informed application to the U.S. NRC. This process includes identifying and characterizing the uncertainties associated with the PRA, performing an uncertainty analysis to understand the impact of the uncertainties on the results of the PRA, and factoring the results of the uncertainty analyses into the decisionmaking.

@@ Line 24: / Line 24: @@
 **Appendix B provides an assessment of potential sources of model uncertainty associated with the internal fire hazard. This appendix identifies the minimum set of generic sources of model uncertainty that need to be addressed for meeting the related PRA standard supporting requirements associated with the internal fire hazard.
 *[https://www.epri.com/#/pages/product/000000000001016737/?lang=en-US, EPRI 1016737, ''Treatment of Parameter and Modeling Uncertainty for Probabilistic Risk Assessments''] provides a generic list of model uncertainties and examples of how to characterize those sources.
-*[https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/staff/sr1855/r1/, NUREG-1855 Revision 1, ''Guidance on the Treatment of Uncertainties Associated with PRAs in Risk Informed Decisionmaking''] provides guidance on how to treat uncertainties associated with PRAs to support a risk-informed application to the U.S. NRC. This process includes identifying and characterizing the uncertainties associated with the PRA, performing an uncertainty analysis to understand the impact of the uncertainties on the results of the PRA, and factoring the results of the uncertainty analyses into the decisionmaking.
+*[https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/staff/sr1855/r1, NUREG-1855 Revision 1, ''Guidance on the Treatment of Uncertainties Associated with PRAs in Risk Informed Decisionmaking''] provides guidance on how to treat uncertainties associated with PRAs to support a risk-informed application to the U.S. NRC. This process includes identifying and characterizing the uncertainties associated with the PRA, performing an uncertainty analysis to understand the impact of the uncertainties on the results of the PRA, and factoring the results of the uncertainty analyses into the decisionmaking.

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 ===Background===
-This task describes the approach to follow for identifying and treating uncertainties throughout the Fire PRA process. The treatment may vary from quantitative estimation and propagation of uncertainties where possible (e.g., in fire frequency and non-suppression probability) to identification of sources without quantitative estimation, where knowledge of a quantitative treatment of uncertainties is beyond the state-of-the-art. The treatment may also include one-at-a-time variation of individual parameter values to determine the effect on the overall fire risk (sensitivity analysis).
+This task describes an approach for identifying and treating uncertainties throughout the Fire PRA process. The treatment may vary from quantitative estimation and propagation of uncertainties where possible (e.g., in fire frequency and non-suppression probability) to identification of sources without quantitative estimation, where knowledge of a quantitative treatment of uncertainties is beyond the state-of-the-art. The treatment may also include one-at-a-time variation of individual parameter values to determine the effect on the overall fire risk (sensitivity analysis).
 ===Purpose===

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 This procedure covers the identification and treatment of uncertainties throughout the Fire  PRA. As such, it provides: (1) background on the subject of uncertainty found in Appendix U, (2) classification of types of uncertainty, and (3) a general approach with regard to practical implementation of treating expected uncertainties in the Fire PRA, as described in Appendix V.
-==Related Element(s) of ASME/ANS PRA Standard, ASME-RA-Sb-2013==
+==Related Element of ASME/ANS PRA Standard==
 Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis (UNC)

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 *[https://www.epri.com/#/pages/product/1026511/?lang=en-US EPRI 1026511, ''Practical Guidance on the Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Applications with a Focus on the Treatment of Uncertainty''] provides supplemental guidance beyond EPRI 1016737 and NUREG-1855
 **Appendix B provides an assessment of potential sources of model uncertainty associated with the internal fire hazard. This appendix identifies the minimum set of generic sources of model uncertainty that need to be addressed for meeting the related PRA standard supporting requirements associated with the internal fire hazard.
-*[https://www.epri.com/#/pages/product/000000000001016737/?lang=en-US, EPRI 1016737 ''Treatment of Parameter and Modeling Uncertainty for Probabilistic Risk Assessments''] provides a generic list of model uncertainties and examples of how to characterize those sources.
+*[https://www.epri.com/#/pages/product/000000000001016737/?lang=en-US, EPRI 1016737, ''Treatment of Parameter and Modeling Uncertainty for Probabilistic Risk Assessments''] provides a generic list of model uncertainties and examples of how to characterize those sources.
-*[https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/staff/sr1855/r1/, NUREG-1855 Revision 1 ''Guidance on the Treatment of Uncertainties Associated with PRAs in Risk Informed Decisionmaking'']
+*[https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/staff/sr1855/r1/, NUREG-1855 Revision 1, ''Guidance on the Treatment of Uncertainties Associated with PRAs in Risk Informed Decisionmaking''] provides guidance on how to treat uncertainties associated with PRAs to support a risk-informed application to the U.S. NRC. This process includes identifying and characterizing the uncertainties associated with the PRA, performing an uncertainty analysis to understand the impact of the uncertainties on the results of the PRA, and factoring the results of the uncertainty analyses into the decisionmaking.

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:18, 6 November 2018
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	**Appendix B provides an assessment of potential sources of model uncertainty associated with the internal fire hazard. This appendix identifies the minimum set of generic sources of model uncertainty that need to be addressed for meeting the related PRA standard supporting requirements associated with the internal fire hazard.		**Appendix B provides an assessment of potential sources of model uncertainty associated with the internal fire hazard. This appendix identifies the minimum set of generic sources of model uncertainty that need to be addressed for meeting the related PRA standard supporting requirements associated with the internal fire hazard.
	*[https://www.epri.com/#/pages/product/000000000001016737/?lang=en-US, EPRI 1016737 ''Treatment of Parameter and Modeling Uncertainty for Probabilistic Risk Assessments''] provides a generic list of model uncertainties and examples of how to characterize those sources.		*[https://www.epri.com/#/pages/product/000000000001016737/?lang=en-US, EPRI 1016737 ''Treatment of Parameter and Modeling Uncertainty for Probabilistic Risk Assessments''] provides a generic list of model uncertainties and examples of how to characterize those sources.
		+	*[https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/staff/sr1855/r1/, NUREG-1855 Revision 1 ''Guidance on the Treatment of Uncertainties Associated with PRAs in Risk Informed Decisionmaking'']

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:13, 6 November 2018
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	*[https://www.epri.com/#/pages/product/1026511/?lang=en-US EPRI 1026511, ''Practical Guidance on the Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Applications with a Focus on the Treatment of Uncertainty''] provides supplemental guidance beyond EPRI 1016737 and NUREG-1855		*[https://www.epri.com/#/pages/product/1026511/?lang=en-US EPRI 1026511, ''Practical Guidance on the Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Applications with a Focus on the Treatment of Uncertainty''] provides supplemental guidance beyond EPRI 1016737 and NUREG-1855
	**Appendix B provides an assessment of potential sources of model uncertainty associated with the internal fire hazard. This appendix identifies the minimum set of generic sources of model uncertainty that need to be addressed for meeting the related PRA standard supporting requirements associated with the internal fire hazard.		**Appendix B provides an assessment of potential sources of model uncertainty associated with the internal fire hazard. This appendix identifies the minimum set of generic sources of model uncertainty that need to be addressed for meeting the related PRA standard supporting requirements associated with the internal fire hazard.
		+	*[https://www.epri.com/#/pages/product/000000000001016737/?lang=en-US, ''Treatment of Parameter and Modeling Uncertainty for Probabilistic Risk Assessments''] provides a generic list of model uncertainties and examples of how to characterize those sources.

← Older revision		Revision as of 14:52, 6 November 2018
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	*NUREG-1855 Revision 1		*NUREG-1855 Revision 1
	*[https://www.epri.com/#/pages/product/1026511/?lang=en-US EPRI 1026511, ''Practical Guidance on the Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Applications with a Focus on the Treatment of Uncertainty''] provides supplemental guidance beyond EPRI 1016737 and NUREG-1855		*[https://www.epri.com/#/pages/product/1026511/?lang=en-US EPRI 1026511, ''Practical Guidance on the Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Applications with a Focus on the Treatment of Uncertainty''] provides supplemental guidance beyond EPRI 1016737 and NUREG-1855
		+	**Appendix B provides an assessment of potential sources of model uncertainty associated with the internal fire hazard. This appendix identifies the minimum set of generic sources of model uncertainty that need to be addressed for meeting the related PRA standard supporting requirements associated with the internal fire hazard.